Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.083840 0.097135 0.112321 0.131052 0.153668 0.180266 0.214168
2025-10-26 0.064810 0.080821 0.100830 0.128013 0.164508 0.212580 0.282003
2025-11-02 0.050472 0.066860 0.088936 0.121524 0.169593 0.239860 0.354211
2025-11-09 0.039356 0.054874 0.077165 0.112571 0.169445 0.261093 0.428626
2025-11-16 0.032942 0.048234 0.071615 0.111547 0.181514 0.306425 0.565743
2025-11-23 0.027857 0.042627 0.066527 0.110205 0.193373 0.357673 0.746562
2025-11-30 0.024252 0.038691 0.063361 0.111533 0.211255 0.430076 1.027147
2025-12-07 0.021230 0.035178 0.060227 0.112273 0.229030 0.513402 1.413059
2025-12-14 0.018248 0.031212 0.055499 0.108738 0.236952 0.580345 1.831344
2025-12-21 0.015125 0.026482 0.048435 0.098538 0.225953 0.593731 2.098114
2025-12-28 0.013528 0.024379 0.046188 0.098564 0.241434 0.696743 2.882445
2026-01-04 0.012412 0.023035 0.045251 0.101512 0.266878 0.854476 4.251250
2026-01-11 0.011263 0.021480 0.043665 0.102767 0.289632 1.030825 6.261532
2026-01-18 0.010254 0.020060 0.042116 0.103794 0.313228 1.241706 9.368049
2026-01-25 0.009187 0.018353 0.039578 0.101389 0.324478 1.415590 13.111860
2026-02-01 0.008130 0.016514 0.036391 0.096222 0.323361 1.531287 17.084624
2026-02-08 0.007500 0.015560 0.035245 0.097075 0.347862 1.840987 26.889449
2026-02-15 0.006921 0.014638 0.034014 0.097345 0.370974 2.192450 42.774958
2026-02-22 0.006486 0.014002 0.033426 0.099678 0.406390 2.723179 76.174021
2026-03-01 0.006073 0.013356 0.032691 0.101323 0.440704 3.346798 139.324771
2026-03-08 0.005577 0.012437 0.031019 0.098995 0.452640 3.799114 224.608111
2026-03-15 0.004952 0.011114 0.027961 0.090463 0.423513 3.730793 264.527077
2026-03-22 0.004651 0.010597 0.027217 0.090974 0.450913 4.477876 518.317390